National property prices are expected to increase between 2 and 5 per cent by the end of 2023, according to PropTrack’s Property Market Outlook August 2023 Report.
The report analyses consumer behaviour by extracting property market data from the 12.1 million Australians who visit realestate.com.au each month.
It comes following a 2.3 per cent increase in property prices over the first six months of the 2023 calendar year.
“The property market has seen a turnaround this year with six consecutive months of property price growth,” PropTrack director of economic research Cameron Kusher said.
The property market this year has showed resilience in the face of rising interest rates and relatively low wages growth.
Dwelling price forecasts for 2023-24
| Region | Previous forecast for December 2023 | Current forecast for December 2023 | Current forecast for December 2024 |
| Sydney | -9pc to -12pc | 3pc to 6pc | -1pc to 2pc |
| Melbourne | -9pc to -12pc | -1pc to 2pc | 0pc to 3pc |
| Brisbane | -6pc to -9pc | 1pc to 4 pc | -2pc to 1pc |
| Adelaide | -3pc to -6pc | 3pc to 6pc | 0pc to 3pc |
| Perth | -2pc to 1pc | 4pc to 7pc | 0pc to 3pc |
| Hobart | -7pc to -10pc | -3pc to -6pc | -1pc to -4pc |
| Darwin | -4pc to -7pc | -3pc to 0pc | -1pc to – 2pc |
| Canberra | -7pc to -10pc | 0pc to 3pc | -2pc to 1pc |
| Combined capital cities | -7pc to -10pc | 3pc to 6pc | 0pc to 3pc |
| National | -7pc to -10pc | 2pc to 5pc | 0pc to 3pc |
The report suggested a lack of supply of available properties for sale was a key factor contributing to buyer competition and price growth.
“We expect property prices to increase by up to 5 per cent nationally over the remainder of 2023, with greater growth projected in the larger capital cities,” he said.
Earlier this week CoreLogic reported the national average home price rose 0.7 per cent in July.
Houses in Brisbane and Adelaide saw the strongest gains.
The report from PropTrack notes prices are forecast to increase between 3 and 6 per cent, on an annual basis, across the combined capital cities.
All capital cities except Hobart (-3 to -6 per cent) and Darwin (-3 to 0 per cent) are expected to see positive price growth over the remainder of 2023.
The strongest growth is expected in Perth (4 to 7 per cent), Sydney and Adelaide (both 3 to 6 per cent), and Brisbane (1 to 4 per cent).
Melbourne (-1 to 2 per cent) and Canberra (0 to 3 per cent) are forecast to see growth this year.
However, Mr Kusher concedes forecasting the direction of the property market beyond 2023 has proved challenging.
“The outlook for 2024 is much less clear, with a large cohort of fixed-rate borrowers’ mortgages set to expire from current interest rates of around 2 per cent and reset to around 6 per cent,” Mr Kusher said.
“Interest rate changes act with a lag and, as such, the possible impact of higher repayments on these borrowers won’t be seen until 2024.
“At this stage, we are forecasting modest price growth in 2024.”
Source: New report shows national property market increase to continue, David Taylor for ABC News